OK if I DON'T check the news for a while?

I'm not looking forward to the results in Iowa, and somehow the presidential campaign as a whole just keeps getting more unsettling. Without saying too much about it myself, I'll just steal a post from Scott Lemieux at the Prospect that sounds like I could've written it. Except for the stuff about Romney. I suspect that his Mormonism and obvious artificiality (it's all about convincing insincerity with the GOP rank and file) are bigger hurdles than a lot of fellow liberals believe. On the Republican side, I'll be rooting for a surprise win by Incitatus.

In addition to Tom [Schaller], I see that Josh Marshall -- who, like me, had written off McCain's candidacy long ago -- now sees McCain as the favorite. Depressingly, I think this is right. Certainly, I agree with Josh that the GOP is now an effective two-man race between McCain and Romney, and you have to think that McCain has a good shot (although I also agree that Romney really shouldn't be written off; he will be more acceptable to a lot of conservatives than McCain.) For reasons that Matt explains here, a McCain win would be very bad for the Dems: despite his moderate reputation he's a fiscal and cultural reactionary with nutty foreign policy views, he has the best chance of winning of any major GOP candidate, and a McCain candidacy (especially if he's matched up against Clinton or Edwards) would result in an anti-Democratic media bloodbath comparable to 2000. I'm definitely cheering for Romney tonight...