"The Krug" calls it for Dems. Sort of.

The election is still weeks away, but poll-watchers are starting to make their predictions. Charlie Cook last week started using terms like "grim" and "real bad" to describe the situation for Republicans, although he mentioned the incredible mix of issues suddenly being thrown into the electoral cauldron, such as North Korea, that could still affect the outcome.

But Paul Krugman, whose wonderful column went behind that dreaded NYT subscription wall way back when, has chimed in. Like Cook, he still hedges his bets and acknowledges that Democrats might not take back the House, but what he does say is heartening:

Here's what's happening: a huge Democratic storm surge is heading toward a high Republican levee. It's still possible that the surge won't overtop the levee – that is, the Democrats could fail by a small margin to take control of Congress. But if the surge does go over the top, the flooding will almost surely reach well inland – that is, if the Democrats win, they'll probably win big. (. . .)

Bear in mind that the GOP isn't in trouble because of a string of bad luck. The problems that have caused Americans to turn on the party, from the disaster in Iraq to the botched response to Katrina, from the failed attempt to privatize Social Security to the sudden realization by many voters that the self-proclaimed champions of moral values are hypocrites, are deeply rooted in the whole nature of Republican governance. So even if this surge doesn't overtop the levee, there will be another surge soon.