The Daily Sandwich

"We have to learn the lesson that intellectual honesty is fundamental for everything we cherish." -Sir Karl Popper

Location: Boston, Massachusetts, United States


Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Checking in with Charlie

Although Charlie Cook wrote as recently as the 28th that Republicans' electoral fortunes seemed to be making a slight uptick, but it looked to him like they would "probably" lose the House, and maybe the Senate as well.

Yesterday, he was revising that estimate down even further.

With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely.

If independents vote in fairly low numbers, as is customary in midterm elections, losses in the House will be on the lower end of that range. But if they turn out at a higher than normal level, their strong preference for Democrats in most races would likely push the GOP House losses to or above the upper levels.

We'll see. Like many people out there, I'm still pretty gunshy after the last couple of elections. But Halloween doesn't have to be all scares.